India’s solar industry could see a further decline in panel and inverter prices over the next two quarters as global manufacturers are reporting unusually high inventory levels. According to industry analysts, this trend is expected to benefit Indian consumers, EPC companies, and commercial buyers preparing for FY 2026 installations.

Global Manufacturers Report Record Inventory Levels

Recent supply chain data from major Asian producers suggests that stockpiles of solar modules have increased by nearly 18% compared to last year. Factors include slower demand in Europe, increased production capacity in China, and reduced freight costs across major shipping routes.

“We are witnessing oversupply conditions not seen in almost four years,” said an energy market analyst. “India is positioned to benefit most because demand continues to grow while prices soften.”

Indian EPC Companies Expect 5–8% Cost Reduction

Solar EPC companies in India told SolSetu that they expect module prices to drop by 5–8% between December 2025 and March 2026. This could significantly impact rooftop solar affordability, especially under subsidy schemes such as PM Surya Ghar and state-level programs.

Inverters, which represent roughly 10–12% of system cost, may also see marginal price correction due to reduced shipping and global inventory pressure.

Impact on Residential and C&I Markets

The residential rooftop market is likely to see the fastest response to price drops. Analysts predict that lower component prices, combined with subsidies and the growing push for net-metering stability, may increase installation demand by 15–20% in early 2026.

The commercial and industrial (C&I) sector is expected to benefit as well, as businesses look to lock in lower CapEx and hedge against rising grid tariffs.

Forecast: India May Cross 25 GW New Installation in FY 2026

With falling component prices, easing logistics, and strong policy support, India may surpass 25 GW of new solar capacity additions in FY 2026 — a notable increase from the current trajectory.

Experts believe that if global oversupply continues, India could enter its most cost-efficient solar installation period in the last five years.

What to Watch Next

Industry stakeholders are closely monitoring:

• International module shipment prices
• China’s production output for Q1 2026
• Updates in India’s ALMM policy enforcement
• Demand outlook from the US and EU markets

More clarity is expected by mid-December as suppliers release quarterly production forecasts.